Will the US BLS CPI report by 13 December 2026 show headline YoY inflation at or above 3.0%?
Posted 2026-10-20 — 54 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) regularly publishes the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a key measure of inflation in the United States. This forecast concerns whether the headline year-over-year inflation rate in the next scheduled release will meet or exceed a specific threshold.
The claim
The next US BLS CPI release, published by 2026-12-13, reports headline year-over-year inflation at or above 3.0 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_cpi_headline (instance 5)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-20) — 86% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- milestone BLS announces the release date for the November 2026 CPI report in its official economic release calendar
- precondition BLS completes data collection for November 2026 CPI (price surveys from retail outlets and service providers conclude)
- milestone The BLS publishes the Consumer Price Index report for November 2026, containing the 'All items' headline year-over-year inflation figure in the 'Percent change from a year ago' column.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.