Will the International Myeloma Society adopt MRD negativity as the standard cure definition by 9 Oct 2026?
Posted 2026-09-25 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The International Myeloma Society is a global professional organization dedicated to the study and treatment of multiple myeloma. Minimal residual disease (MRD) negativity refers to the absence of detectable cancer cells using highly sensitive testing methods. This forecast concerns whether the society will formally designate this specific metric as the operational standard for defining a cure in the disease.
The claim
The International Myeloma Society adopts highly sensitive MRD negativity as the standard operational definition for cure in multiple myeloma
Reasoning trace
- Presentation of the new definition by Adaptive Biotechnologies at the InMM meeting
- Growing consensus on the prognostic value of MRD in long-term remission studies
- Alignment with recent long-term follow-up data from CAR-T therapies
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 8 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 14 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 61% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.