Air India cancels or reroutes at least one scheduled flight to Riyadh (King Khalid International Airport) between 2026-10-18 and 2026-12-10 in response to the Houthi attacks on the airport.

probability 82% deadline 2026-12-10 (59d left) Supply Chain

Posted 2026-10-11 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Reasoning trace

Houthi missile/drone attacks repeatedly hit King Khalid International Airport, killing and injuring passengers and disrupting operations.
Airlines operating to Riyadh face safety and insurance pressures and typically suspend or reroute flights when an airport is under active attack.
Air India, as a major carrier serving Riyadh, will adjust its schedule, either by cancelling or rerouting specific flights, if attacks persist or intensify.

Evidence so far

5 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-12) — 72% at mint → 82% today.

What to watch

leading indicator Air India publishes a public schedule change notice or operational bulletin indicating the cancellation or suspension of flights to Riyadh (RUH) due to security concerns
precondition Air India issues a public statement or media release confirming the suspension of operations at King Khalid International Airport (RUH)
leading indicator GACA publishes a public advisory or Notam restricting commercial air traffic at King Khalid International Airport (RUH) citing Houthi missile or drone attacks.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.