Will OpenAI complete its acquisition of Ona by 29 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-29 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
OpenAI is an artificial intelligence research and deployment company. Ona is a technology entity that is the subject of a proposed corporate acquisition. This question concerns the completion of a specific business transaction between the two parties.
The claim
OpenAI will complete its acquisition of Ona by 2026-10-29.
Reasoning trace
- OpenAI announced an agreement to acquire Ona to extend Codex to longer-running tasks
- The parties proceed through final diligence and signing
- The acquisition closes and OpenAI takes ownership of Ona
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 87% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition OpenAI and Ona complete final due diligence and both parties' boards approve the definitive acquisition agreement terms
- leading indicator OpenAI and Ona announce or file notice of a signed definitive acquisition agreement with regulatory authorities or in a public SEC filing
- leading indicator A regulatory authority (e.g., FTC, DOJ, or relevant foreign competition regulator) issues a public statement, filing, or decision confirming no blocking objection or clearance of the OpenAI–Ona acquisition
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.