← All open predictions

Will the US State Department designate the Houthis as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by September 30, 2026?

closed deadline 2026-09-30

Posted 2026-09-23, stated before the outcome.

This prediction has left the live shortlist.

The United States State Department designates groups as Foreign Terrorist Organizations to restrict their access to US financial systems and impose legal penalties on those who support them. The Houthi movement is a Yemeni armed group that has been involved in regional conflicts and maritime security incidents in the Red Sea.

The claim

The United States State Department will designate the Houthi movement as a Foreign Terrorist Organization by September 30, 2026, in response to attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea attributed to Houthi proxies.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.