Will Grain Management end the HSR waiting period for its 800 MHz sale to SpaceX by 30 Nov 2026?
Posted 2026-10-22 — 39 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Grain Management is a telecommunications company, and SpaceX is a private aerospace and defense company. The Hart-Scott-Rodino Act requires federal antitrust review before large corporate transactions can be completed.
The claim
Grain Management will obtain the expiration or early termination of the Hart-Scott-Rodino antitrust waiting period for its $8 billion sale of the 800 MHz spectrum portfolio to SpaceX on or before 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- Grain Management and SpaceX filed HSR notification after signing the definitive purchase agreement on 2026-10-08
- FTC/DOJ review finds no substantial competitive harm requiring a second request
- The 30-day waiting period expires or the agencies grant early termination
- A closing condition of the SpaceX acquisition is satisfied
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-22) — 80% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The FTC or DOJ issues a written determination that the Hart-Scott-Rodino waiting period for the Grain Management/SpaceX 800 MHz spectrum transaction has expired without a second request being issued, or grants an early termination notice
- precondition No second request for additional information is issued by the FTC or DOJ within the initial 30-day HSR waiting period (by approximately 2026-11-08, given the 2026-10-08 filing date)
- precondition The FTC or DOJ grants early termination of the HSR waiting period for the Grain Management/SpaceX transaction
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.