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Will Aleksandar Vucic be appointed Prime Minister of Serbia by 27 November 2026?

probability 79% deadline 2026-11-27 (59d left) Society

Posted 2026-09-28 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

Aleksandar Vucic is a Serbian politician who has served as the President of Serbia. The National Assembly of Serbia is the country's unicameral legislature responsible for appointing the Prime Minister.

The claim

By 2026-11-27, Aleksandar Vucic will have been appointed as Prime Minister of Serbia by the National Assembly.

Reasoning trace

  1. Vucic resigned as president to transition to the prime minister role, as he announced.
  2. He leads the SNS, which is expected to win the snap election on October 25.
  3. After the election, coalition negotiations will likely result in SNS forming a government.
  4. Vucic's appointment as PM would follow the standard parliamentary procedure within weeks.

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.