The United States and Iran do not reach a formal agreement on nuclear non-proliferation measures or sanctions relief before the US midterm elections in November 2026.
Posted 2026-09-29 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The United States and Iran do not reach a formal agreement on nuclear non-proliferation measures or sanctions relief before the US midterm elections in November 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Significant divergent views on the scope of nuclear concessions required by the US.
- Trump administration's public denial of willingness to offer sanctions relief or unfreezing of funds.
- Hardline stance from Iranian military leadership (IRGC) and political figures warning against regional insecurity.
Evidence so far
9 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 81% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- precondition A US-Iran bilateral negotiation framework or talks schedule is publicly announced or confirmed by both governments
- leading indicator Iran and the US issue a joint statement or communiqué indicating substantive progress toward a nuclear agreement
- precondition A signed bilateral agreement between the United States and Iran on nuclear measures or sanctions relief is publicly announced or filed with the US State Department
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.