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Will TTF natural gas prices exceed €80/MWh before September 15, 2026?

closed deadline 2026-09-15

Posted 2026-09-01, stated before the outcome.

This prediction has left the live shortlist.

The Title Transfer Facility (TTF) is the primary benchmark for European natural gas pricing. This forecast concerns whether supply disruptions or seasonal demand factors will push the price above a specific threshold before the stated deadline.

The claim

European natural gas (TTF) prices will exceed €80/MWh on at least one trading day before September 15, 2026, driven by Iran war supply disruption and winter storage anxiety.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.