Eli Lilly will publicly announce, on or before 2026-11-30, that EloraTZP — a combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound — will advance to Phase 3 clinical development for obesity or overweight with type 2 diabetes.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Eli Lilly will publicly announce, on or before 2026-11-30, that EloraTZP — a combination of eloralintide and tirzepatide, the active ingredient in Zepbound — will advance to Phase 3 clinical development for obesity or overweight with type 2 diabetes.
Reasoning trace
- Signpost: Eli Lilly's Q3 2026 earnings call or investor communication includes management guidance that EloraTZP will advance to Phase 3 after its Phase 2b success.
- The larger development: Lilly's next-generation combination containing Zepbound's active ingredient enters late-stage testing, potentially reshaping the Zepbound franchise.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.