Will the NAR existing home sales report published by 21 October 2026 show a month-over-month decline?
Posted 2026-09-25 — 26 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) is a trade association that publishes monthly data on existing home sales in the United States. This metric tracks the number of previously owned homes sold and is a key indicator of housing market activity.
The claim
The next NAR existing home sales release, published by 2026-10-21, reports a month-over-month decline.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_existing_home_sales (instance 3)
Evidence so far
1 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 8 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 41% at mint → 85% today.
What to watch
- milestone NAR publishes the preliminary existing home sales report for August 2026 observed
- milestone The National Association of Realtors (NAR) publishes the preliminary existing home sales report for August 2026. observed
- leading indicator NAR issues a media advisory or calendar notice confirming the release date for the August 2026 existing home sales report
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.