Will the Bank of England raise Bank Rate to 4.25% on 17 December 2026?
Posted 2026-11-06 — 41 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Bank of England is the central bank of the United Kingdom, responsible for setting monetary policy to maintain price stability. Its Monetary Policy Committee meets regularly to determine the official Bank Rate, which influences borrowing costs across the economy.
The claim
The Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee votes to raise Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.25% at its meeting on 17 December 2026.
Reasoning trace
- The Bank of England raised Bank Rate to 4% on 5 November 2026 citing inflationary pressure from the Iran war and energy prices.
- Governor Andrew Bailey signalled that another increase is likely unless the Middle East conflict is resolved.
- The Bank's own survey shows the median expected rate path rising to 4.25% by February 2027.
- With inflation projected to approach 5% in mid-2027, the MPC front-loads a further 25bp hike in December.
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-11-07) — 56% at mint → 77% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.