The Iranian Supreme Court will issue a final confirmation of Parastoo Ahmadi's 74-lash sentence within 14 days, rejecting appeals for clemency.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Iranian Supreme Court will issue a final confirmation of Parastoo Ahmadi's 74-lash sentence within 14 days, rejecting appeals for clemency.
Reasoning trace
- Hardline judicial stance in Iran
- Existing precedent of upholding harsh sentences for hijab violations
- High profile of the victim causing international attention
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The Iranian Ministry of Justice or Supreme Court website posts a public decision document citing 'rejection' or 'upholding' for Parastoo Ahmadi's case
- precondition The Iranian Supreme Court publishes a public ruling or official notice rejecting Parastoo Ahmadi's appeal for clemency
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.