G7 members publicly confirm delivery of at least 40 million barrels of the announced diesel and crude release by 2026-10-20.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 19 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
G7 members publicly confirm delivery of at least 40 million barrels of the announced diesel and crude release by 2026-10-20.
Reasoning trace
- IEA coordination mechanism activated
- Member states release from strategic stocks
- Public reporting confirms volumes
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-03) — 85% at mint → 78% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The IEA publishes a monthly report or official statement confirming that member countries have released at least 40 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves.
- milestone At least one major G7 member (e.g., US, Japan, or Germany) issues a public notice or press release confirming its specific contribution to the 40 million barrel target.
- leading indicator The IEA publishes a public report or press release confirming that member states have executed the coordinated release of strategic petroleum reserves.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.