By 2026-10-28, OpenAl will publish a concrete plan detailing a timeline and safety criteria for resuming training of its latest AI models.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-28, OpenAl will publish a concrete plan detailing a timeline and safety criteria for resuming training of its latest AI models.
Reasoning trace
- OpenAI halts training of latest models due to safety incidents
- Investors and regulators demand clarity on resumption criteria
- OpenAI publishes a formal plan with timeline and safety benchmarks
- The predicted development is the publication of a concrete plan
- This would resolve significant uncertainty for stakeholders
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.