By 28 October 2026, FMCSA will have published a Federal Register notice granting at least one of the 20 new hearing exemption applications received on 26 September 2026.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 28 October 2026, FMCSA will have published a Federal Register notice granting at least one of the 20 new hearing exemption applications received on 26 September 2026.
Reasoning trace
- FMCSA receives 20 new hearing exemption applications
- FMCSA reviews each application under statutory criteria
- FMCSA publishes a grant decision for at least one applicant
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 87% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition FMCSA publishes a Federal Register notice denying the hearing exemption application for the trucking company with the highest safety score
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.