Will the FOMC leave the federal funds target range unchanged on 28 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-21 — 37 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) is the monetary policy-making body of the U.S. Federal Reserve System. It meets regularly to set the target range for the federal funds rate, which influences borrowing costs and economic activity.
The claim
The FOMC leaves the federal funds target range unchanged at its 2026-10-28 meeting.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: fomc_rate_decision (instance 3)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 2 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-09-21) — 80% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The FOMC publishes the minutes of the 2026-09-16 meeting showing a consensus to hold rates steady.
- milestone The Federal Reserve Board of Governors publishes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) for the October meeting.
- precondition The Federal Reserve publishes the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) accompanying the October 2026 FOMC statement
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.