The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approves the 20-year power purchase agreement between Amazon and Constellation Energy for Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Station by October 15, 2026.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) approves the 20-year power purchase agreement between Amazon and Constellation Energy for Calvert Cliffs Nuclear Station by October 15, 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Strategic value of maintaining nuclear capacity for AI data centers
- Political alignment with green energy goals in Maryland
- Constitution of the agreement by Constellation as a major player
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 70% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator FERC issues a public notice of the final order on the Amazon-Constellation Calvert Cliffs PPA docket
- milestone The FERC Commission votes to approve the PPA during a scheduled public meeting
- precondition FERC issues a public notice or order on the docket stating that the Amazon-Constellation Calvert Cliffs PPA is exempt from FERC jurisdiction under Section 201 of the Federal Power Act.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.