Will the EU adopt new sanctions on Iranian or IRGC-linked actors by 15 Nov 2026?
Posted 2026-10-12 — 34 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The European Union frequently imposes restrictive measures on Iranian state entities and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to address security threats. This forecast concerns whether specific attribution of a plot at RAF Fairford will trigger additional regulatory actions before the deadline.
The claim
The European Union adopts at least one additional sanctions measure targeting Iranian entities or IRGC-linked actors by 2026-11-15 in response to RAF Fairford plot attribution.
Reasoning trace
- Burnham attributes plot to IRGC
- EU expands existing Russia sanctions list
- New Iran-specific designations adopted
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-12) — 75% at mint → 83% today.
What to watch
- milestone The Council General Affairs Council (GAC) holds a substantive meeting to discuss the draft Iran sanctions regulation observed
- milestone The European Commission publishes a formal proposal to the Council amending Council Regulation (EU) 2024/1142
- leading indicator The EU Council General Affairs Council (COREPER) agenda includes a specific item for adopting new Iran-related sanctions designations
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.