Orange announces that it, Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and Vodafone have selected AST SpaceMobile (via Satellite Connect Europe) as the satellite partner for their joint Mobile Satellite Services spectrum bid by 2026-12-18.
Posted 2026-10-19 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Orange announces that it, Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and Vodafone have selected AST SpaceMobile (via Satellite Connect Europe) as the satellite partner for their joint Mobile Satellite Services spectrum bid by 2026-12-18.
Reasoning trace
- On 2026-10-19, Orange, Deutsche Telekom, Telefónica and Vodafone signed a Letter of Intent to explore a joint bid for Mobile Satellite Services spectrum.
- The carriers stated they will not invest in a satellite constellation and must select a satellite operator.
- Orange already holds a 41.24% stake in Satellite Connect Europe, the AST SpaceMobile-Vodafone joint venture, making AST the natural candidate.
- The consortium announces AST SpaceMobile/SCE as the selected satellite partner to support the bid.
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 1 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-20) — 65% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.