Will the US BLS report nonfarm payroll gains below 150,000 by 6 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-11 — 26 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the US government agency responsible for collecting and publishing labor market data. Its monthly employment report provides key metrics on nonfarm payroll changes, which are widely monitored indicators of economic health.
The claim
The next US BLS employment report, published by 2026-11-06, reports nonfarm payroll gains below 150,000.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_payrolls (instance 3)
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-12) — 72% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- precondition The US House of Representatives and Senate pass a continuing resolution or appropriations bill to fund federal operations through November 6, 2026 observed
- precondition The US Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Employment Situation report for September 2026 observed
- leading indicator The Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes the 'Employment Situation Summary' news release on its website
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.