Will the US announce a new sanctions package against Russia before 29 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-04 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The United States government imposes economic sanctions on Russia to influence its foreign policy and restrict access to global financial systems. Such measures are typically coordinated with international partners and target specific sectors or entities.
The claim
The US announces a new sanctions package against Russia before 2026-11-29.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_russia_sanctions (instance 2)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-04) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- milestone The US Treasury Department publishes a Federal Register notice or OFAC advisory detailing the specific sanctions measures against Russia
- leading indicator The US State Department or White House issues a joint statement or policy announcement regarding new measures against Russia
- leading indicator The White House publishes a draft or final executive order in the Federal Register or on whitehouse.gov proposing new sanctions on Russia
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.