Will China NBS PPI YoY be at or above -1.0% by 10 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-21 — 20 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS) publishes monthly Producer Price Index (PPI) data to track inflation or deflation in industrial goods. This forecast concerns the specific year-over-year percentage change reported in the upcoming release.
The claim
The next China NBS PPI release, published by 2026-11-10, reports year-over-year producer prices at or above minus 1.0 percent.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: cn_ppi_yoy (instance 3)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-21) — 86% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The NBS publishes the October 2026 Industrial Value-Added (IIP) report on stats.gov.cn
- leading indicator The NBS publishes the preliminary or flash PPI data for October 2026 showing a month-over-month increase or a narrower month-over-month decline than September 2026.
- milestone The NBS releases the 'Analyst's Comment' section for the October 2026 PPI report prior to the full data table publication.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.