Will Democrats win the US House in the 2026 midterms by 10 Nov 2026?
Posted 2026-08-17 — 85 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The United States House of Representatives is the lower chamber of Congress, where members are elected every two years. The Democratic Party is one of the two major political parties in the US, competing with the Republican Party for legislative control.
The claim
The Democratic Party wins control of the US House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections, with the outcome called by 2026-11-10.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_midterms_house (instance 1)
Evidence so far
116 confirming · 0 denying signals · 4 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 84 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 63% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- milestone A major national poll (e.g., Gallup or Quinnipiac) released in October 2026 reports a Democratic generic ballot lead of 4+ points observed
- milestone The Federal Election Commission publishes the official 2026 midterm election calendar confirming November 3, 2026 as the election date.
- leading indicator State election authorities in at least 10 states publish final ballot deadlines and polling place locations for the November 2026 House elections.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.