Will the next China customs trade release by 2026-12-10 report year-over-year export growth at or above zero?
Posted 2026-10-19 — 52 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China publishes monthly statistics on the country's international trade flows. Year-over-year changes in the value of exports form one of the standard indicators used to assess supply-chain conditions. The release scheduled no later than December 10, 2026 will contain the most recent monthly data available at that date.
The claim
The next China customs trade release, published by 2026-12-10, reports year-over-year export growth at or above zero.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: cn_exports_yoy (instance 4)
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-20) — 81% at mint → 87% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The General Administration of Customs of China publishes the November 2026 monthly trade data release
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.