The local civil defense authority in the affected mountain region will issue a permanent closure or mandatory route restriction order for the specific trail/road network impacted by the flood within 30 days of the casualty reports.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.