Will UK Chancellor John Healey announce an increase in the bank surcharge rate to at least 5% on or before 8 November 2026?
Posted 2026-10-09 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
John Healey serves as Chancellor of the Exchequer in the United Kingdom. The Autumn Budget is the annual presentation of the government's tax and spending plans. The bank surcharge is an additional levy on the profits of banks operating in the UK.
The claim
UK Chancellor John Healey announces in the Autumn Budget, on or before 8 November 2026, an increase in the bank surcharge rate on UK banking sector profits from 3% to at least 5%.
Reasoning trace
- TUC publishes £6bn bank tax-break cost and urges reversal
- Labour government faces fiscal pressure and union demands ahead of the Budget
- Healey raises the bank surcharge in the Autumn Budget
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 9 times since mint (last on 2026-10-29) — 17% at mint → 83% today.
What to watch
- milestone The UK Government publishes the official Autumn Statement 2026 document on GOV.UK
- leading indicator HM Treasury releases draft or pre-release details confirming a Bank Profit Surcharge rate increase to 5% or higher ahead of the formal Autumn Statement publication
- milestone HM Treasury publishes the Autumn Statement document containing the bank surcharge rate increase
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.