The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly mortgage applications index will decline for an eighth consecutive week in the report published on 7 October 2026.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 7 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The Mortgage Bankers Association's weekly mortgage applications index will decline for an eighth consecutive week in the report published on 7 October 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Mortgage rates have risen for six straight weeks
- Higher rates reduce affordability and refinance incentive
- Mortgage applications fall for an eighth straight week
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- milestone Mortgage Bankers Association posts the Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey to its website on 7 October 2026
- leading indicator The MBA publishes the weekly mortgage applications survey dated 30 September 2026 showing a decline in the total index
- precondition The MBA Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey dated 30 September 2026 reports a week-over-week decline in total mortgage applications.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.