By 2026-10-23, Costco's reported Q3 net sales will show a year-over-year increase of at least 10%.
Posted 2026-08-24 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 2026-10-23, Costco's reported Q3 net sales will show a year-over-year increase of at least 10%.
Reasoning trace
- Parallel: Walmart's Q4 2022 sales growth (2022), sim=8
- In late 2022, amid high inflation and energy price shocks, Walmart maintained >5% YoY sales growth due to high consumer traffic and essential goods demand.
Evidence so far
26 confirming · 0 denying signals · 7 verified · 3 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 42 times since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 79% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- milestone Costco files its Form 10-Q for the fiscal quarter ending May 2026 with the SEC observed
- milestone Costco publishes its Q3 FY2026 earnings press release or 10-Q filing disclosing net sales data observed
- precondition The US Department of Justice concludes its beef price inquiry without imposing antitrust penalties or structural remedies on Costco contradicted
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.