The US Treasury or OFAC will publish at least one new sanctions or enforcement action targeting Iranian entities (airlines, financial, or shipping) in the Federal Register by 2026-10-17
Posted 2026-09-26 — 21 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The US Treasury or OFAC will publish at least one new sanctions or enforcement action targeting Iranian entities (airlines, financial, or shipping) in the Federal Register by 2026-10-17
Reasoning trace
- regulation concretizing (+0.51) + assumption_flip supporting OFAC Iranian-airlines action + Pezeshkian Face the Nation interview Sept 27 as catalyst
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 10 times since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 55% at mint → 81% today.
What to watch
- milestone A new entry appears on the OFAC Sanctions List Updates page listing an Iranian airline or bank as a newly designated Specially Designated National. observed
- milestone OFAC publishes a new entry on the Specially Designated Nationals (SDN) List or issues a specific designation notice targeting an Iranian financial institution on its official website observed
- leading indicator The US Department of State or Treasury issues a public statement or press release announcing the intent to designate specific Iranian airline or financial entities as Specially Designated Nationals.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.