OPEC+ will announce by 20 November 2026 the completion of its delayed capacity assessment and revised 2027 production baselines for member countries.
Posted 2026-10-02 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
OPEC+ will announce by 20 November 2026 the completion of its delayed capacity assessment and revised 2027 production baselines for member countries.
Reasoning trace
- OPEC+ capacity assessment delayed to mid-November
- Countries submit data and secretariat finalizes review
- OPEC+ announces completed assessment and 2027 baselines
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- precondition OPEC+ member countries submit their final production capacity data to the secretariat
- milestone The OPEC+ secretariat publishes a technical report or draft baseline document for 2027
- precondition OPEC+ member countries submit their updated capacity and production data to the OPEC+ secretariat
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.