By 15 November 2026, OpenAI will publicly announce a specific new safety evaluation framework or third-party audit requirement as a direct consequence of the delayed model release.
Posted 2026-09-29 — 47 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 15 November 2026, OpenAI will publicly announce a specific new safety evaluation framework or third-party audit requirement as a direct consequence of the delayed model release.
Reasoning trace
- Anthropic prospectus highlights existential risk
- OpenAI security incidents trigger government scrutiny
- Regulatory and investor pressure mounts
- Second company announces delay
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 80% at mint → 83% today.
What to watch
- precondition OpenAI's board of directors or safety committee issues a public resolution or letter mandating the adoption of a new safety evaluation framework.
- leading indicator OpenAI announces a partnership or contract with a named third-party auditor to conduct safety evaluations.
- leading indicator OpenAI publishes a public policy document or announcement explicitly mentioning 'third-party audit' or 'independent audit' requirements for its model release process
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.