By 30 October 2026, OFAC publishes a more comprehensive set of Cuba sanctions regulations implementing the May 1, 2026 Cuba-related executive order, including general licenses and interpretive guidance.
Posted 2026-09-30 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
By 30 October 2026, OFAC publishes a more comprehensive set of Cuba sanctions regulations implementing the May 1, 2026 Cuba-related executive order, including general licenses and interpretive guidance.
Reasoning trace
- OFAC publishes initial Cuba sanctions regulations
- OFAC states intent to supplement with comprehensive regulations
- OFAC issues the comprehensive Cuba sanctions regulations
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-30) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
What to watch
- milestone OFAC publishes a Notice of Proposed Rulemaking (NPRM) for comprehensive Cuba sanctions regulations in the Federal Register, with a public comment period
- leading indicator OFAC issues a public statement or notice confirming intent to issue comprehensive Cuba sanctions regulations implementing the May 1, 2026 executive order, including general licenses and interpretive guidance
- milestone OFAC publishes initial Cuba sanctions regulations implementing the May 1, 2026 executive order (without comprehensive general licenses section)
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.