Will China conduct zero large-scale military exercises around Taiwan before 2026-11-20?
Posted 2026-10-09 — 42 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The People's Republic of China and the Republic of China maintain a complex cross-strait relationship characterized by periodic military posturing. Large-scale exercises in the Taiwan Strait are significant security events that observers monitor for their potential impact on regional stability.
The claim
China conducts zero large-scale military exercises around Taiwan before 2026-11-20.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: cn_taiwan_exercises (instance 2)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-09) — 72% at mint → 77% today.
What to watch
- precondition The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) does not announce or conduct a large-scale joint naval exercise in the South China Sea or East Sea involving more than 5 major combatants between 2026-10-09 and 2026-11-20.
- leading indicator Commercial AIS tracking data does not show a formation of more than 5 major combatants or a carrier strike group operating within the 12-nautical-mile zone of Taiwan for over two days between 2026-10-09 and 2026-11-20.
- leading indicator The People's Liberation Army Navy does not announce the deployment of a carrier strike group or amphibious assault group to the waters east of Taiwan.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.