Will Suez Canal transit continue without a multi-day disruption through 2026-12-13?
Posted 2026-10-18 — 56 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Suez Canal is an artificial waterway in Egypt that connects the Mediterranean Sea to the Red Sea. It functions as a primary route for international maritime shipping and trade. Questions about uninterrupted transit through a given date relate to assessments of supply chain reliability.
The claim
Suez Canal transit continues without a multi-day disruption through 2026-12-13.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: suez_disruption (instance 2)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-18) — 85% at mint → 76% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The Suez Canal Authority publishes a daily transit report for the week of October 25, 2026, showing normal transit counts and no 'standstill' or 'blocked' status
- precondition No major maritime incident or blockage is reported by international news agencies in the Suez Canal corridor by November 15, 2026
- precondition The International Maritime Organization (IMO) or Suez Canal Authority issues a public advisory or warning regarding specific navigational hazards in the canal
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.