CXMT announces a strategic partnership or commercial supply agreement with a non-Chinese server or PC OEM (such as HP, ASUS, or Acer) by October 12, 2026, to secure DRAM supply amid the global memory shortage.

probability 79% deadline 2026-10-12 (13d left) Market

Posted 2026-09-28 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Reasoning trace

Severe global DRAM shortage with suppliers' inventories at historic lows.
Rising pressure on OEMs to diversify supply chains away from Samsung/SK Hynix/Micron.
CXMT's increased profitability and production capacity making it a viable alternative.

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 70% at mint → 79% today.

What to watch

precondition CXMT demonstrates production capacity or inventory availability sufficient to supply DRAM or memory modules to a major OEM at commercial scale observed
precondition CXMT completes and finalizes a commercial supply or partnership agreement with a named non-Chinese server or PC OEM (HP, ASUS, Acer, or equivalent), evidenced by a signed contract or binding LOI filed or disclosed in regulatory filings or corporate announcements.
precondition CXMT's production capacity and inventory levels reach a threshold sufficient to support a commercial supply commitment to an OEM, as evidenced by quarterly earnings reports, investor presentations, or supply-chain announcements disclosing available DRAM volumes.

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.