Will zero unplanned oil-supply outages above 500,000 barrels per day be reported before 2026-12-13?
Posted 2026-11-01 — 42 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Oil supply disruptions are tracked by industry analysts when production volumes are unexpectedly reduced. Outages are quantified in barrels per day and reported through established energy information channels. The query concerns whether any single unplanned event exceeding the stated threshold will appear in such reports by the deadline.
The claim
Zero unplanned oil-supply outages above 500,000 barrels per day are reported before 2026-12-13.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: oil_supply_disruption (instance 4)
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 4 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-11-01) — 71% at mint → 77% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.