Vladimir Putin will hold a formal bilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on the sidelines of the Russia-ASEAN summit in Kazan before 2026-12-09.
Posted 2026-10-10 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Vladimir Putin will hold a formal bilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. on the sidelines of the Russia-ASEAN summit in Kazan before 2026-12-09.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: Host leaders hold bilateral meetings with most heads of state attending a regional summit ≈ 70%
- Marcos Jr.'s attendance is confirmed and Moscow is courting Southeast Asian states, making the meeting likely unless scheduling conflicts interfere.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-10) — 75% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.