The next US Census retail sales release, published by 2026-10-16, reports a month-over-month increase.
Posted 2026-09-21 — 25 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
The next US Census retail sales release, published by 2026-10-16, reports a month-over-month increase.
Reasoning trace
- Core question: us_retail_sales (instance 2)
Evidence so far
3 confirming · 0 denying signals · 6 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 9 times since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 55% at mint → 87% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator The US Census Bureau publishes the Advance Monthly Retail Trade Report for August 2026
- milestone The US Census Bureau publishes the Advance Estimate of Retail Sales for August 2026
- milestone The Census Bureau publishes the August 2026 Advance Retail Sales report
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.