Will Paraguay's Congress approve an emergency law or fund to reimburse or guarantee Ueno Bank depositors by 2026-12-15?
Posted 2026-11-05 — 40 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Paraguay's Congress is the legislative body with authority to enact laws and establish public funds. Ueno Bank operates as a financial institution serving depositors within the country. The question addresses whether legislative measures for depositor protection will be approved by the stated deadline.
The claim
Paraguay's Congress approves an emergency law or fund to reimburse or guarantee Ueno Bank depositors, by 2026-12-15.
Reasoning trace
- Ueno Bank shut on solvency grounds and deposits frozen
- Peña resigns and is impeached; Alliana takes office
- Mass protests force Congress to legislate depositor relief
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 2 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-11-06) — 56% at mint → 77% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.