Will OFAC issue a license for US firms to buy Venezuelan crude by 31 October 2026?
Posted 2026-08-29 — 63 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) administers US economic sanctions and issues licenses that permit specific transactions otherwise prohibited. This question concerns whether regulatory authorizations will be granted to facilitate the purchase of Venezuelan crude oil by US or allied companies.
The claim
The US Treasury/OFAC issues at least one general license or specific authorization enabling US or allied companies to lift, transport, or purchase Venezuelan crude under the announced 65-billion-barrel deal before 2026-10-31.
Reasoning trace
- Trump publicly announces US-Venezuela oil control deal
- Deal implementation requires lifting/modifying existing OFAC sanctions on PDVSA and Venezuelan energy sector
- Treasury issues general license or specific authorization to enable US corporate participation
- Cargoes begin loading under authorized framework
Evidence so far
11 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 14 times since mint (last on 2026-09-13) — 70% at mint → 74% today.
What to watch
- precondition The US Treasury/OFAC publishes a General License or Sanctions Notice in the Federal Register explicitly authorizing transactions involving Venezuelan crude oil under the new framework observed
- milestone The US Treasury/OFAC publishes a list of designated persons or entities in the Federal Register or OFAC's website that are subject to the new authorization regime contradicted
- milestone The US Treasury/OFAC publishes the final text of the General License or Executive Order modifying PDVSA sanctions on the Federal Register or OFAC website observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.