Will OFAC issue a license for US firms to buy Venezuelan crude by 31 October 2026?
Posted 2026-09-13, stated before the outcome.
The Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) administers US economic sanctions and issues licenses that permit specific transactions otherwise prohibited. This question concerns whether regulatory authorizations will be granted to facilitate the purchase of Venezuelan crude oil by US or allied companies.
The claim
The US Treasury/OFAC issues at least one general license or specific authorization enabling US or allied companies to lift, transport, or purchase Venezuelan crude under the announced 65-billion-barrel deal before 2026-10-31.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.