Will North Korea launch a ballistic missile between 20 September and 30 November 2026?
Posted 2026-09-20 — 71 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The Democratic People's Republic of Korea is a state in East Asia that has developed and tested various ballistic missile systems. This forecast concerns the frequency of such military tests during a specific three-month period in late 2026.
The claim
North Korea conducts at least one additional ballistic missile launch between 20 September and 30 November 2026.
Reasoning trace
- Test programs run in campaigns not one-offs
- UNGA/summit calendar creates demonstration windows
- No diplomatic mechanism to halt tests
- Additional launch occurs
Evidence so far
7 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 1 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 14 times since mint (last on 2026-10-03) — 76% at mint → 86% today.
What to watch
- precondition North Korea conducts a ballistic missile launch detectable by Japanese sensors observed
- leading indicator South Korea's Joint Chiefs of Staff or US Forces Korea (USFK) publicly confirms the detection of a North Korean ballistic missile launch observed
- leading indicator Seoul or Tokyo announces the detection of a ballistic missile launch from North Korea observed
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.