← All open predictions

Meta files a notice of appeal against the New Mexico jury verdict by 2026-10-28.

probability 79% deadline 2026-10-28 (29d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-09-28 — 30 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Meta files a notice of appeal against the New Mexico jury verdict by 2026-10-28.

Reasoning trace

  1. New Mexico jury finds Meta violated privacy laws
  2. Meta faces potential penalties and reputational damage
  3. Meta files an appeal to delay and challenge the verdict

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-09-28) — 87% at mint → 79% today.

What to watch

  • precondition The New Mexico trial court enters a formal judgment or order reflecting the jury's verdict on the privacy law claims.
  • leading indicator Meta's legal counsel publicly announces or confirms the intent to appeal the New Mexico verdict.
  • precondition Meta's notice of appeal is filed with the New Mexico district court clerk

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.