Lloyd's Joint War Committee expands or maintains the enhanced-risk listed area covering the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz on or before 2026-11-30, and does not remove Hormuz from listed areas.
Posted 2026-09-28 — 63 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Lloyd's Joint War Committee expands or maintains the enhanced-risk listed area covering the Persian Gulf/Strait of Hormuz on or before 2026-11-30, and does not remove Hormuz from listed areas.
Reasoning trace
- Trump rejected Iran's Hormuz reopening proposal
- CENTCOM continues to escort vessels through Hormuz
- Iran's Caspian rerouting signals sustained tension
- War-risk underwriters maintain elevated classification through the war-risk renewal cycle
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 5 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 7 times since mint (last on 2026-09-29) — 80% at mint → 80% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator Lloyd's Joint War Committee publishes a circular or schedule amendment explicitly listing the Strait of Hormuz as a war-risk area with an effective date covering the period up to November 30, 2026
- precondition The Lloyd's Joint War Committee publishes a formal notice or press release explicitly removing the Strait of Hormuz from its list of war-risk areas.
- leading indicator CENTCOM publishes a public statement or press release confirming the continuation of naval escort operations for commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.