Will Paraguay's Chamber of Deputies approve Ueno Bank's deposit-guarantee reform by 30 November 2026?
Posted 2026-11-06 — 24 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
Paraguay's Chamber of Deputies is the lower house of the country's bicameral legislature, responsible for passing national laws. Ueno Bank is a financial institution operating in Paraguay that has proposed regulatory changes to its deposit guarantee framework.
The claim
By 2026-11-30, Paraguay's Chamber of Deputies has approved the deposit-guarantee reform that allows Ueno Bank customers to receive advance payments of up to 40 minimum wages.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: emergency deposit-guarantee legislation in Latin American banking crises ≈ 80% passage within two weeks of introduction.
- Senate approval on 2026-11-05 and protests by millions of locked-out Ueno Bank customers create intense pressure on deputies to pass the same reform.
- Impeachment proceedings against President Peña could crowd the legislative calendar, so I trim the base rate to 75%.
Evidence so far
2 confirming · 0 denying signals · 1 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 3 times since mint (last on 2026-11-07) — 69% at mint → 82% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.