The US International Trade Commission (USITC) issues a final determination by October 15, 2026, that revocation of the antidumping duty order on alloy magnesium from China would likely lead to continuation or recurrence of material injury, thereby maintaining the existing duty order.

probability 82% deadline 2026-10-15 (13d left) Regulation

Posted 2026-10-01 — 14 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.

The claim

Reasoning trace

High base rate of affirmative injury determinations in 'sunset' or five-year reviews for durable trade remedies.
Historical dependence of US magnesium alloy supply on domestic and other allied sources rather than China.
Domestic producers typically provide strong evidence of past dumping and current pricing pressure in such reviews.

Evidence so far

0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.

Probability history

Updated 2 times since mint (last on 2026-10-02) — 78% at mint → 82% today.

What to watch

milestone The USITC publishes the 'Preliminary Determination' or 'Notice of Preliminary Determination' for the magnesium alloy anti-dumping sunset review on its website.
leading indicator The USITC publishes the 'Notice of Final Determination' or 'Final Determination' document for the magnesium alloy anti-dumping sunset review on its website.
milestone The USITC publishes the final determination document on its official website or in the Federal Register

The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].

Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.