A publicly reported Iranian strike on a tanker, LNG carrier, or energy facility outside the Strait of Hormuz (Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, or Arabian Sea) occurs between 2026-10-08 and 2026-11-15.
Posted 2026-10-08 — 38 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
A publicly reported Iranian strike on a tanker, LNG carrier, or energy facility outside the Strait of Hormuz (Gulf of Oman, Red Sea, or Arabian Sea) occurs between 2026-10-08 and 2026-11-15.
Reasoning trace
- Iran expands target geography beyond Hormuz chokepoint
- US naval deterrence tested outside carrier range
- Additional strike occurs and is publicly attributed
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-08) — 83% at mint → 79% today.
What to watch
- leading indicator A vessel or energy facility in the Gulf of Oman reports damage, fire, explosion, or security incident via distress call, AIS signal loss, or operator notification to maritime authorities
- milestone US, UK, or regional naval/intelligence officials issue a public statement, briefing, or attribution naming Iran as responsible for the incident
- leading indicator A vessel or energy facility in the Red Sea reports damage, fire, or distress consistent with a military strike (not weather or mechanical failure), with initial reports circulating in maritime or news channels.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.