Will the IEA publish a country-by-country breakdown of the 100 million barrel G7 oil release by 31 October 2026?
Posted 2026-10-03 — 28 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The International Energy Agency coordinates the G7's emergency oil stockpile releases to stabilize global energy markets. This forecast concerns whether the agency will disclose specific national allocation volumes for the participating member states.
The claim
The International Energy Agency will publish a country-by-country breakdown of the 100 million barrel G7 emergency oil and diesel release, naming at least five member countries with assigned volumes, by 2026-10-31.
Reasoning trace
- Parallel: 2022 IEA coordinated release (120 million barrels) after Russia invasion, sim=9
- In 2022 the IEA announced the aggregate release and then published member-by-member contributions within days; the current G7 100 million barrel release is explicitly coordinated through the IEA, so publishing the country breakdown is the IEA's next observable action.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 3 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-03) — 78% at mint → 84% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.