Will the US Supreme Court deny Trump's request to set aside 20,000 CA ballots by 30 Nov 2026?
Posted 2026-11-02 — 28 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The US Supreme Court is the highest federal court with authority to review lower court decisions and emergency applications. This question concerns a specific legal challenge regarding the validity of mail-in ballots in California.
The claim
The US Supreme Court denies, in whole or in substantial part, the Trump administration's emergency application to set aside roughly 20,000 disputed California mail-in ballots, by 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- DOJ files the emergency application
- Circuit Justice requests a response from California
- Court weighs the Purcell principle and state authority
- Order denying the application is issued
Evidence so far
4 confirming · 0 denying signals · 7 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 4 times since mint (last on 2026-11-03) — 67% at mint → 83% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.