Captain Smit Machchhar will have been discharged from hospital (acute inpatient care ended) following treatment for injuries sustained in the FZ1073 cockpit attack by 2026-11-30.
Posted 2026-10-01 — 60 days before the deadline, stated before the outcome.
The claim
Captain Smit Machchhar will have been discharged from hospital (acute inpatient care ended) following treatment for injuries sustained in the FZ1073 cockpit attack by 2026-11-30.
Reasoning trace
- Base rate: adults with critical penetrating trauma who survive the first 48 hours are discharged within 60 days ≈ 80%
- Captain Machchhar survived the initial attack and was hospitalised on 30 September 2026; no signal indicates a terminal or long-term institutional care trajectory.
- Global attention on his case would make a discharge publicly reported, but the exact clinical course is unseen, so I cap the probability below the base-rate high end.
Evidence so far
0 confirming · 0 denying signals · 0 verified · 0 broken assumptions. The evidence itself is part of the full dossier.
Probability history
Updated 1 time since mint (last on 2026-10-01) — 85% at mint → 80% today.
The full dossier behind this prediction — the evidence trail, the risk analysis, the monetization scenarios — is available on request: [email protected].
Probabilities are calibrated against the system's own resolved history; after the deadline the outcome is resolved and audited — including the calls we get wrong. Nothing on this page is investment advice.